Despite rising prices, consumer demand for meat or poultry is growing. North American demand for beef, pork and poultry is “very good,” says Kevin Grier, a market analyst and economic researcher with a focus on meat, poultry, livestock and grocery product sectors.
“Consumption and demand are two different things,” explains Grier. “Demand comprises what we eat and the price we’re willing to eat it at. In that regard, demand for Canadian beef, pork and chicken has been very good.”
Consumption for beef in particular is down, not because people don’t want meat but because of what Grier says is the “cattle cycle.”
“We’re in the liquidation mode of the cattle cycle, so cattle head is declining. It’s a 10- to 15-year cycle between the peak of a cow herd and calf being born. Essentially, it means there is less supply this year and likely no relief in sight for the foreseeable future, so prices won’t be coming down and it means more consumers will continue to buy on promotion rather than regular price. It’s also why we’re seeing more beef from Mexico and Australia.”
Martin Lemoyne, director of Canadian business development for Certified Angus Beef, says that despite inflationary pressures, shoppers are looking for high-quality products, and while retailers may trade down on quality to cut costs, “what we’ve seen over and over again is that by trading down, retailers risk selling their shoppers a poor eating experience and have a higher potential of losing market share. We continue to promote quality and focus on alternate, more cost-effective cuts where shoppers will find great value.”
Higher beef costs, though, are impacting what and how retailers are selling. And as a result, pork or dark chicken products such as legs, drums and thighs will continue to be popular options for shoppers because of lower price points, says Grier.
Canada Pork has seen an “unprecedented high” of pork consumption, says Kevin Mosser, vice president, global marketing, noting that pork consumption per capita in the country surged from 14.61 kg per person in 2022 to 16.72 kg in 2023.
Grier says he also expects to see better pricing on turkey.
“Turkey went through 2022 and 2023 dealing with avian influenza in Canada and the U.S. but the disease has passed, and we saw even at Easter, there were a lot more turkeys on the front page of flyers. I expect to see more turkeys at more comfortable prices for consumers in the coming months.”
While supply chain pressures have eased, some suppliers say other factors are contributing to rising manufacturing and processing costs.
“Increased input costs such as increased tax, regulatory fees, fuel surcharges, wages, utility fees, maintenance costs and other costs continue to put pressure on pricing and the overall cost of everything we buy today,” says Richard Brandt-Welzel, vice president of operations for deli meat maker Brandt Meats.
Growth of halal meat
The Canadian halal market is worth approximately $1 billion and is increasing at a rate of 13 per cent per year, according to Nourish Food Marketing. And many secular consumers are increasingly purchasing certified halal meats, as they are widely regarded as being cleaner products with no impurities because of how the meat is prepared according to religious requirements.
Salima Jivraj, account director and multicultural lead at Nourish Food Marketing, says in the last eight to 10 years, the retail market for halal products has been growing at double-digit rates annually, “showing no signs of slowing down.”
Nourish conducts an annual halal shopper study that looks at halal shoppers in grocery retail. “We’ve been conducting this study for eight years, and every year we see growth in non-Muslims purchasing halal. In our research, we see more and more people who perceive halal as ‘better for you.’”
